Check a brand's growth plan against the aisle before it goes into the model.

Where plans usually break

Most growth cases for a packaged goods brand lean on three things the company does not fully control. Each one deserves a look from outside the spreadsheet.

The shelf. New distribution assumes a retailer will make room. Space in most categories is fixed, so a buyer adds an item only when another one leaves or the category gains from the change. Until someone has made that case to the buyer, the extra points of distribution live in the model and nowhere else.

The price. A price increase or a new pack size looks tidy when volume is held steady. In the store, shoppers compare brands, sizes and private label, and some walk away from the aisle. How far they move depends on how they organize the category in their heads, which a finance model rarely captures.

The retailer. Every line review ends with the buyer's decision, and buyers are wary of proposals that serve only the supplier. A plan that depends on retailer cooperation has to give the retailer a reason to cooperate, grounded in the whole category rather than one brand.

How Edgewood tests a plan

Three pieces of work, done by our team, with the brand's own people involved as much or as little as the owners prefer.

1. Category and shopper read

   We study the full category in syndicated and retailer point of sale data, then use Shopper Decision Hierarchy research to see how shoppers choose: which items substitute for each other, which add to the category, and who leaves when their item is gone.

2. Retailer read

   We interview buyers and category managers in the channels the brand sells through, asking how they see the category, the brand and the kind of change the plan relies on.

3. The recommendation, and help carrying it out

   You get a plain view of which parts of the plan hold, which need rework and what to do instead. Our team then builds the retailer-ready case and stays with management through implementation.

Where this is used

Owners bring us in at the points where an outside read of the category changes what they decide.

• Before a deal closes

  A view on whether the company's assumptions for distribution, pricing and new items fit the category it competes in, while there is still time to reflect that in the investment thesis.

• Early in ownership

  A shared, independent picture of the category for the new owners and the management team, so the value creation plan starts from facts both sides accept.

• Before a major launch or price move

  A check with shoppers and retailers on one specific decision, whether a launch, a discontinuation or a price change, before the brand commits the spending behind it.

The wider practice

Edgewood Consulting Group is a sales and marketing strategy and analytics consultancy for consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers, built on three pillars: Insights, Innovation and Implementation. A plan review draws on the same services the practice offers every client: AssortmentEdge® assortment optimization, run retailer by retailer; RevenueEdge™, a full-market simulation that links launches and discontinuations to margin; Trade Probes, our retail buyer interviews; and Shopper Decision Hierarchy research into how shoppers choose within a category. The work is delivered as a service, with our team doing the analysis, across Food, Drug, Mass, Club, Dollar and Online retail.

About Edgewood